Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3F 0x3faf…e2b6 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 35L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$471per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$7
politics 34% −$7
sports 13% −$12
economics 7% −$3
world 6% −$1
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$990) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage87d
Avg bet$471
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Paolini be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 28 $1,081 −$1 -0%
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 28 $68 $0 -0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 27 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 27 $64 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,116 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026? Jun 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $1,166 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? Jun 26 $72 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? Jun 26 $1,172 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,171 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 26 $1,073 −$3 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $900 −$1 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 06 $990 −$9 -1%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 06 $950 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $986 −$3 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $973 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? May 04 $25 $0 -0%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House May 04 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $918 −$2 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 07 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Paolini be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,080 1h
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 98¢ $68 1h
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 98¢ $22 1h
Will Jasmine Paolini be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,045 1h
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 98¢ $28 1h
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 98¢ $18 1h
Will Jasmine Paolini be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $36 2h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $763 2h
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $27 2h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $312 2h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $1,076 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $64 19h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,116 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 19h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,075 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $23 20h
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 20h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 20h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $911 20h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $252 20h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 20h
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 21h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $1,166 21h
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $72 40h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,171 40h
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $21 40h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,123 40h
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $24 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records