Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3faf…3c0f
crypto · 94 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses40 / 53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage19d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 28 $0 +$1 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 28 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 28 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 27 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 27 $0 +$1 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 27 $0 $0 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 27 $0 $0 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 27 $0 $0 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -37.3% -43.2% 22% 22% -41.6%
≤30d 93 -13.1% -21.3% 43% 40% -22.3%
≤90d 93 -13.1% -21.3% 43% 40% -22.3%
all 93 -13.1% -21.3% 43% 40% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 40% -22.3%
10% -28.9% 40% -29.7%
15% -35.7% 33% -36.5%
20% -42.0% 27% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 160 history records