Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3fb2…fac4 other 39 markets active 6d ago coverage 730d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+3%) realized +$69 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate94%31W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$38
other 17% +$30
politics 11% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 2% +$2
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.8% -3.4% 100% 33% -2.8%
≤30d 6 +6.8% -3.4% 100% 33% -2.8%
≤90d 6 +6.8% -3.4% 100% 33% -2.8%
all 33 +1.8% -7.9% 94% 15% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 15% -6.7%
10% -16.7% 6% -15.6%
15% -24.8% 3% -23.8%
20% -32.1% 0% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×53.47 per $1 lost it wins $53.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

730d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses31 / 2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)33 / 39
History coverage730d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $109 $109 +$0 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? No 91¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$2 (+3%)
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin more valuable than any company in 2025? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Anthropic acquired in 2025? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025? Jun 10 $21 +$3 +15%
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? Jun 10 $40 +$10 +25%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jun 10 $74 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 30 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 30 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 30 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 04 $86 +$12 +14%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Nov 04 $14 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Jul 19 $79 $0 +1%
Tether insolvent in 2025? Jul 17 $22 +$1 +2%
X allowed to operate in China before May? Jul 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 04 $1,010 +$4 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 in March? Apr 24 $50 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 28 $63 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Feb 28 $67 +$6 +10%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Feb 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be less than $3b on inauguration day? Feb 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump be Speaker by January 1? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 20 $17 +$1 +3%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 20 $20 $0 +1%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 20 $85 +$7 +9%
Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Will a Republican win Tennessee Presidential Election? Nov 09 $9 $0 +1%
Base airdrop in 2024? Nov 03 $20 $0 +0%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Oct 24 $22 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Oct 24 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump be Speaker by October 1? Oct 24 $85 $0 +0%
Did Trump launch $RTR? Sep 11 $85 $0 +0%
Base airdrop by September 30? Aug 10 $20 $0 +1%
zkSync airdrop by June 30? Jul 17 $40 +$16 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? BUY No 91¢ $46 6d
Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $109 6d
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $74 168d
Anthropic acquired in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $20 168d
Bitcoin more valuable than any company in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $13 168d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 168d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 168d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $13 168d
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? BUY No 80¢ $40 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 98¢ $6 224d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 224d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? BUY No 94¢ $94 224d
Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025? BUY No 87¢ $21 224d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $20 224d
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $14 224d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 98¢ $92 224d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? SELL No 100¢ $79 332d
Tether insolvent in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $22 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? BUY No 99¢ $79 347d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,010 362d
X allowed to operate in China before May? BUY No 100¢ $15 418d
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? BUY No 93¢ $14 418d
Tether insolvent in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $22 418d
Will Solana hit $300 in March? BUY No 100¢ $50 445d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 86¢ $86 445d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL No 92¢ $28 472d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL No 92¢ $10 472d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL No 92¢ $35 472d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.80 · official $228.80 (match) · 248 history records