Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fb5…c8b6 crypto 410 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$205 (-15%) realized −$204 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate26%104W / 301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$55
14 days−$82
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$288
sports 1% −$6
politics 1% −$1
other 1% $0
finance 1% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -19.5% -27.1% 41% 32% -22.8%
≤30d 272 -24.9% -32.0% 25% 21% -29.9%
≤90d 405 -26.4% -33.4% 26% 22% -29.2%
all 405 -26.4% -33.4% 26% 22% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.4% 22% -29.2%
10% ← realistic here -39.8% 17% -36.0%
15% -45.6% 15% -42.2%
20% -50.9% 12% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses104 / 301
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)405 / 410
History coverage40d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 70¢ 50¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 24¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+110%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$12 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$14 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$6 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +12%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.97 · official $7.31 · 1423 history records