Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:59:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3fb9…03e4 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$399 (+33%) realized +$399 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%21W / 9L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$388
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +34.4% +21.6% 70% 70% +19.9%
≤30d 30 +34.4% +21.6% 70% 70% +19.9%
≤90d 30 +34.4% +21.6% 70% 70% +19.9%
all 30 +34.4% +21.6% 70% 70% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.6% 70% +19.9%
10% ← realistic here +9.9% 70% +8.5%
15% -0.7% 63% -2.0%
20% -10.4% 50% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$32 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$399
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses21 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$70 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $61 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $103 +$71 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$22 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$29 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$58 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$46 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $62 +$57 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $41 +$32 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$49 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $79 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records