Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fbc…9cf6 sports 1639 markets active 1h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 206d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,898 (-1%) realized −$1,892 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%764W / 873L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$114
14 days−$571
30 days−$507
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$2,086
other 5% −$189
world 0% +$68
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +105.1% +85.6% 100% 100% +85.6%
≤30d 13 -26.4% -33.4% 38% 38% -43.5%
≤90d 34 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 50% -5.8%
all 1637 -1.7% -11.1% 47% 46% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 46% -10.9%
10% -19.6% 46% -19.4%
15% -27.3% 46% -27.2%
20% -34.5% 46% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$82 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$1,892
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses764 / 873
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1637 / 1639
History coverage207d ⚠
Avg bet$90
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1637 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 42¢ $129 $125 −$4 (-3%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 46¢ $61 $59 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 409 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $109 +$114 +105%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $197 −$194 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 05 $83 −$82 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $233 −$230 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $111 −$110 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $71 −$70 -99%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) May 29 $106 −$105 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $42 −$41 -98%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $51 +$56 +109%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $61 +$59 +97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $195 +$102 +52%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 21 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 20 $55 −$54 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5 May 07 $102 −$100 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres May 07 $277 −$274 -99%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) May 03 $131 +$132 +101%
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5) May 02 $249 +$141 +56%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 02 $154 −$41 -26%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 02 $95 +$57 +60%
Pisa SC vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5 May 01 $86 −$85 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $50 +$67 +134%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 23 $84 −$83 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Apr 07 $53 −$52 -99%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5 Apr 04 $40 +$49 +124%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $126 +$138 +109%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 02 $210 +$174 +83%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Mar 30 $70 +$101 +144%
Canadiens vs. Predators Mar 29 $110 +$102 +92%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals Mar 29 $221 +$128 +58%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 26 $350 +$445 +127%
Capitals vs. Blues Mar 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Jets: O/U 5.5 Mar 24 $110 −$110 -100%
Thunder vs. 76ers: O/U 226.5 Mar 24 $98 +$90 +92%
Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 232.5 Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Bilbao Basket vs. Saski Baskonia Feb 17 $56 +$44 +79%
Maryland Terrapins vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Feb 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Men's Group A - Switzerland vs. Czechia Feb 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Presbyterian Blue Hose vs. UNC Asheville Bulldogs: O/U 136.5 Feb 15 $45 +$55 +122%
Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-7.5) Feb 15 $47 +$53 +113%
Wagner Seahawks vs. Stonehill Skyhawks: O/U 130.5 Feb 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Delray Beach Open, Qualification: Michael Mmoh vs Rinky Hijikata Feb 14 $44 −$44 -100%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Feb 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-13.5) Feb 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Niagara Purple Eagles Feb 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Niagara Purple Eagles: O/U 136.5 Feb 13 $50 −$1 -2%
California Baptist Lancers vs. Southern Utah Thunderbirds: O/U 144.5 Feb 13 $45 +$55 +122%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5) Feb 13 $49 +$60 +122%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5 Feb 13 $52 +$58 +113%
Portland State Vikings vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: O/U 134.5 Feb 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $94 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $38 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $62 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $55 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $54 12h
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $197 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 46¢ $83 12d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 57¢ $233 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $111 13d
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 59¢ $71 13d
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) BUY Ruud 56¢ $106 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $42 19d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 47¢ $51 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 50¢ $61 26d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $98 26d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 53¢ $93 26d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $97 26d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) BUY Spurs 47¢ $55 27d
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $51 27d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 40d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 60¢ $277 40d
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) BUY 76ers 49¢ $131 45d
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5) BUY Sinner 63¢ $249 47d
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) BUY Magic 50¢ $94 47d
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) BUY Pistons 52¢ $60 47d
Pisa SC vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $86 47d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $95 47d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 42¢ $50 54d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 55¢ $84 54d
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 52¢ $53 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.18 · official $184.18 (match) · 3500 history records