Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fbd…0731 politics 28 markets active 2d ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%3W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$944per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$34
economics 3% −$1
other 3% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$899) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses3 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage72d
Avg bet$944
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 25? Jun 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $862 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,750 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,737 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $1,769 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,775 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $878 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $1,777 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $882 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $898 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $900 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $47 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $47 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $860 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $862 10d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $861 11d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $862 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $862 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $863 15d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 16d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $863 18d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $864 19d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $866 20d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $863 24d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $865 25d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $865 26d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $867 27d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $871 28d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $872 29d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $867 31d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $869 32d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $869 33d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $870 34d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $874 35d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $875 36d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $874 37d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $875 38d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $874 39d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $876 40d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $877 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records