Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fbd…c4e4 sports 409 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,353 (+6%) realized +$18,833 · open −$480
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%201W / 201L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$776per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Fees−$3,095est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$12,677now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$3,276
other 19% −$241
culture 0% +$30
politics 0% −$42
tech 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -29.0% -35.8% 43% 7% -11.6%
≤30d 84 -33.2% -39.5% 39% 23% -12.0%
≤90d 379 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 39% -10.5%
all 402 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 38% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 38% -10.4%
10% -21.2% 31% -19.0%
15% ← realistic here -28.8% 25% -26.8%
20% -35.8% 21% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$502) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$329 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$12,677
Realized+$18,833
Unrealized−$480
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses201 / 201
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$3,095
Open positions6
Markets (closed)402 / 409
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$776
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 402 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,992 $4,469 +$477 (+12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $4,281 $4,317 +$36 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,960 $3,021 −$939 (-24%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $690 $677 −$12 (-2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $220 $190 −$30 (-14%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes $14 $1 −$12 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $194 +$56 +29%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $98 −$97 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,525 −$112 -7%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $679 +$3 +0%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 22 $717 +$18 +2%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $7 −$3 -35%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,330 −$32 -2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $117 +$7 +6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $8,068 −$11 -0%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3,972 +$28 +1%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $117 −$46 -39%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 18 $255 −$143 -56%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $8,840 +$230 +3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $8,860 +$39 +0%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $34 +$20 +59%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $355 −$3 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,176 −$5 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $79 +$21 +27%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,209 +$28 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $125 −$36 -29%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $78 −$36 -47%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 15 $33 −$8 -23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 15 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $262 −$262 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $257 −$257 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $394 +$276 +70%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $96 +$104 +108%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $89 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 13m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 13m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 22m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,992 50m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $132 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $150 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $136 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $134 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $778 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $112 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $619 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $98 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $178 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,676.73 · official $12,468.35 · 3500 history records