Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3F 0x3fc0…8cce sports 155 markets active 19h ago coverage 11d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$123 (+2%) realized +$123 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%66W / 37L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$228
7 days+$830
14 days+$1,647
30 days+$1,647
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$1,362
other 29% +$263
crypto 3% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +57.4% +42.4% 64% 64% +57.9%
≤30d 103 +57.4% +42.4% 64% 64% +34.7%
≤90d 103 +57.4% +42.4% 64% 64% +34.7%
all 103 +57.4% +42.4% 64% 64% +34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.4% 64% +34.7%
10% +28.8% 64% +21.8%
15% +16.3% 63% +10.0%
20% +4.9% 62% -0.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late +48% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$27 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses66 / 37
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 155
History coverage11d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will B Jun 25 $116 +$201 +173%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $88 +$47 +54%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $29 +$17 +57%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $126 +$84 +67%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$92 +180%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Anthony Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ goals Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$91 +90%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Te Jun 20 $36 +$31 +89%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win o Jun 20 $20 +$38 +186%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden Jun 20 $51 +$40 +79%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $191 +$94 +49%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Jun 20 $26 +$118 +461%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $31 +$59 +192%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AN Jun 20 $31 +$69 +225%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $25 +$41 +161%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $35 +$30 +86%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $76 +$80 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06- Jun 18 $25 +$18 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w Jun 18 $31 +$52 +170%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$27 +53%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 +$10 +65%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Colombia to win the second half? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +65%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 +$8 +79%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$19 +74%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $95 +$179 +188%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$14 +133%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana 2nd Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06 Jun 18 $5 +$15 +291%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $4 +$6 +161%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$11 +53%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$17 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY 32¢ $15 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? AND Paraguay to win the second half? BUY 28¢ $15 19h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY 29¢ $15 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 19h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 45¢ $25 25h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 53¢ $118 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 64¢ $88 2d
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will B BUY 36¢ $116 2d
Croatia to win the second half? AND Croatia leading at halftime? BUY 26¢ $15 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Croatia leading at halftime? BUY 40¢ $15 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 57¢ $101 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $29 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 35¢ $25 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 59¢ $126 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-2 BUY 40¢ $20 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 35¢ $51 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 44¢ $60 5d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 5d
Anthony Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $12 5d
Japan leading at halftime? AND Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY 34¢ $25 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will J BUY 41¢ $31 5d
Ecuador to win the second half? AND Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY 53¢ $20 5d
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $15 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY 42¢ $20 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 33¢ $27 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 19¢ $26 6d
Germany leading at halftime? AND Germany to win the second half? AND E BUY 23¢ $20 6d
Germany leading at halftime? AND Germany to win the second half? BUY 33¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 232 history records