Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:01:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fc2…9c0d crypto 1230 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10,005 (-55%) realized −$10,005 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%521W / 507L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day153.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$3,620
sports 6% +$50
other 2% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (154 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 264 -73.2% -75.7% 12% 12% -72.4%
≤30d 1028 +6.2% -3.9% 51% 50% -6.6%
≤90d 1028 +6.2% -3.9% 51% 50% -6.6%
all 1028 +6.2% -3.9% 51% 50% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover153.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 50% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 49% -15.5%
15% -21.5% 48% -23.7%
20% -29.2% 47% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$10,005
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses521 / 507
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1028 / 1230
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day153.7
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1028 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 24¢ 34¢ $24 $34 +$10 (+40%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 39¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $202 −$202 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 26m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 24¢ $24 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 1¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.38 · official $36.02 (match) · 3500 history records