Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3fc4…b135 crypto 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$670 (+1%) realized +$653 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate71%87W / 35L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$6,108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$63
14 days+$66
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$499
crypto 18% −$71
sports 18% +$273
world 4% −$3
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +2.9% -6.9% 59% 47% -4.5%
≤30d 46 -32.9% -39.3% 41% 24% -10.1%
≤90d 62 -22.1% -29.5% 55% 23% -8.4%
all 122 -5.9% -14.9% 71% 24% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 24% -8.2%
10% -23.0% 19% -17.0%
15% -30.5% 16% -25.0%
20% -37.3% 11% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$6,108
Realized+$653
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses87 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)122 / 135
History coverage173d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,994 $2,998 +$4 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $994 $998 +$4 (+0%)
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $928 $929 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $386 $390 +$4 (+1%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $292 $296 +$4 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 88¢ $185 $176 −$9 (-5%)
Another crypto hack over $100m by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $107 $111 +$4 (+3%)
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Another crypto hack over $100m by September 30? No 60¢ 64¢ $60 $64 +$4 (+6%)
Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06- Jun 29 $1 +$1 +53%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06- Jun 28 $1 $0 +23%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 +$12 +124%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +108%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 27 $58 −$9 -15%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$4 +44%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 24 $2 $0 +11%
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 24 $6 +$4 +82%
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 24 $138 +$52 +38%
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 24 $244 +$8 +3%
Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 24 $649 +$1 +0%
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? Jun 23 $4 −$3 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $2 +$5 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $990 +$10 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$6 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 15? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Oman (Game 1) Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 1? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealand Jun 08 $165 −$119 -72%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
T20 World Cup: West Indies vs South Africa Jun 08 $41 −$41 -100%
Tea FDV above $200M one day after launch Jun 04 $1,592 +$53 +3%
Tea FDV above $500M one day after launch Jun 04 $2,064 +$61 +3%
Tea FDV above $400M one day after launch Jun 04 $54 +$1 +2%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $3,084 +$15 +0%
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026? May 25 $3,662 +$38 +1%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $52 +$38 +73%
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Apr 30 $896 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $66 1h
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $14 2h
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $9 2h
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $97 4h
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $7 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 AND Will C BUY 56¢ $2 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06- BUY 81¢ $1 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06- BUY 65¢ $1 29h
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 41h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY 44¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 40¢ $50 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $994 2d
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $900 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY 69¢ $10 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL 49¢ $4 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY 53¢ $5 3d
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 3d
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $305 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $81 4d
Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 4d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 4d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $104 4d
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 4d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $48 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O BUY 26¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,107.56 · official $6,109.48 (match) · 455 history records