Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3F 0x3fc4…d48c sports 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (157 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,006 (+11%) realized +$982 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%119W / 128L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day157.2pace
Fees−$204est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$656
14 days+$178
30 days+$503
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$586
other 3% −$60
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (157 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -3.6% -12.8% 49% 36% -30.9%
≤30d 247 +3.0% -6.8% 48% 38% -4.5%
≤90d 247 +3.0% -6.8% 48% 38% -4.5%
all 247 +3.0% -6.8% 48% 38% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover157.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 38% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 36% -13.6%
15% -23.9% 33% -22.0%
20% -31.4% 32% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$25 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized+$982
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses119 / 128
Est. fees paid−$204
Open positions5
Markets (closed)247 / 252
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day157.2
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $58 $115 +$56 (+97%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $120 $112 −$8 (-6%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner EDward Gaming 50¢ 53¢ $22 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+286%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 42¢ 2¢ $34 $2 −$32 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $16 +$27 +165%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $41 +$29 +72%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +140%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $114 −$114 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $16 +$2 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$7 +39%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 +$5 +34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $11 +$12 +109%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $5 +$7 +123%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$5 +83%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 +$9 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $28 +$28 +97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$6 +73%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$30 +208%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$2 +226%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$24 +250%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $34 −$6 -19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$6 +276%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 $0 -3%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$15 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$2 -33%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $14 +$10 +70%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $79 −$30 -39%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $26 +$3 +10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 −$1 -2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $18 +$5 +29%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 51¢ $1 5m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 51¢ $1 5m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $1 5m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $1 5m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $1 5m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $1 6m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $1 6m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $1 6m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $1 6m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $1 6m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $1 6m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $1 6m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $1 6m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $1 6m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $1 6m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $7 7m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 38¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 39¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 39¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 38¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.56 · official $260.56 (match) · 3500 history records