Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3F 0x3fcb…f5eb sports 1538 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,607 (-2%) realized −$2,578 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%542W / 924L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$1,578est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,121
7 days+$1,400
14 days+$3,350
30 days+$1,804
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$1,299
other 26% −$891
world 7% −$384
crypto 2% −$620
finance 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +53.4% +38.8% 37% 37% +25.8%
≤30d 266 +10.3% -0.2% 33% 33% -0.7%
≤90d 1289 +0.9% -8.7% 38% 38% -8.7%
all 1466 -3.3% -12.5% 37% 36% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 36% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 36% -18.5%
15% -28.5% 35% -26.4%
20% -35.6% 32% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$79 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized−$2,578
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses542 / 924
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,578
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1466 / 1538
History coverage104d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $288 $298 +$10 (+3%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 37¢ 38¢ $81 $82 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 10¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Second half draw? Jun 15 $20 +$87 +425%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $5 +$258 +5007%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$45 +294%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $203 +$98 +48%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$136 +89%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 +$41 +140%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $113 +$257 +227%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $25 −$24 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $101 +$67 +66%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 +$182 +711%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $119 −$92 -77%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$280 +274%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -97%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $50 +$22 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $102 −$53 -52%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $70 −$69 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $99 +$170 +172%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $174 −$131 -75%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $222 +$92 +41%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $6 +$29 +473%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 11 $113 +$133 +118%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $71 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 10 $23 −$22 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $42 −$41 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $45 −$44 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $15 +$85 +550%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $79 +$210 +267%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Iceland? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 09 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? Jun 09 $51 +$105 +206%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $26 +$70 +272%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $51 +$149 +291%
Ethiopia vs. Malawi: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Second half draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $83 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 89¢ $60 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 99¢ $301 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $89 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 22¢ $15 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Second half draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 66¢ $203 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $5 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $288 14h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $30 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $39 21h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $32 21h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $35 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $152 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $287 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $59 21h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $25 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $84 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $39 23h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $10 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $113 24h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $168 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.19 · official $405.19 (match) · 2698 history records