Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3F 0x3fcb…fe41 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$4
politics 29% −$3
world 4% $0
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -9.4% -18.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 6 -9.4% -18.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 6 -9.4% -18.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 20 -7.9% -16.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$606
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage165d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $209 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $189 $189 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -17%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -18%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1 $0 -21%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 02 $99 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 02 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $447 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 20 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 20 $179 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $80 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 16 $308 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 16 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $475 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 13 $341 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 13 $155 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 5h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 5h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 6h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 7h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 11h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 12h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 13h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 17h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 18h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 21h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 22h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 24h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 29h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 32h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 35h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 37h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 39h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 41h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 43h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43h
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $4 141d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $3 141d
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $4 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $605.63 · official $605.63 (match) · 69 history records