Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:57:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3fd0…047f
sports · 75 markets active 10h ago
0.0score
−$2,156 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,556 · open −$600
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$10,200
Realized−$1,556
Unrealized−$600
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$570
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage98d
Avg bet$1,547
Trades / day34.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 1 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10,800 $10,200 −$600 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 05 $100 −$26 -26%
Jiujiang: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu May 05 $381 −$77 -20%
Aix en Provence: Rinky Hijikata vs Sebastian Ofner May 05 $59 −$48 -81%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Apr 30 $62 +$33 +54%
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Apr 30 $48 −$29 -60%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Apr 29 $185 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Apr 28 $89 $0 +0%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Apr 28 $175 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed Amoura be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga Apr 28 $0 $0 -66%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 28 $495 −$5 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 28 $732 −$69 -9%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $85 −$70 -83%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 28 $123 −$65 -53%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $969 −$57 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 28 $1,519 +$3 +0%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Apr 27 $523 +$34 +6%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste Apr 27 $1,087 +$1 +0%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 27 $422 −$422 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 27 $1,708 −$208 -12%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 27 $4,625 +$161 +4%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 24 $1,524 −$24 -2%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 24 $1,281 +$353 +28%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 24 $4,847 +$136 +3%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Play Apr 23 $83 −$83 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 23 $11,060 +$470 +4%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 22 $3,960 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 20 $1,000 $0 +0%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 20 $17 +$3 +20%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5 Apr 16 $667 +$223 +33%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 15 $453 +$3 +1%
Nanjing Monkey King vs. Beijing Royal Fighters Apr 15 $53 −$53 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Apr 15 $933 −$323 -35%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $5,544 +$56 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 15 $1,782 +$18 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,782 +$18 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $495 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 8? Apr 07 $990 +$10 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $1,481 +$20 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 7? Apr 07 $1,750 −$90 -5%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group A Apr 07 $634 −$56 -9%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 07 $769 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 07 $400 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $497 +$3 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 03 $1,287 +$23 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $988 +$11 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $762 +$16 +2%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 30 $5,940 +$60 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $15,912 +$190 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Mar 30 $495 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 45% −$1,611
world 29% +$259
tech 10% −$595
politics 7% −$1
finance 3% −$126
crypto 3% −$71
economics 1% +$10
other 1% −$31
weather 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 27¢ $11,115 9h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $14 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 38d
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx BUY Alexander Blockx 61¢ $2 43d
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx BUY Alexander Blockx 61¢ $48 43d
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx SELL Casper Ruud 53¢ $13 43d
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx BUY Casper Ruud 48¢ $6 43d
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx BUY Casper Ruud 48¢ $6 43d
Aix en Provence: Rinky Hijikata vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 82¢ $5 43d
Aix en Provence: Rinky Hijikata vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 82¢ $14 43d
Aix en Provence: Rinky Hijikata vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 82¢ $25 43d
Aix en Provence: Rinky Hijikata vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 82¢ $5 43d
Aix en Provence: Rinky Hijikata vs Sebastian Ofner SELL Rinky Hijikata 25¢ $11 43d
Aix en Provence: Rinky Hijikata vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Rinky Hijikata 25¢ $1 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 65 -15.3% -23.3% 48% 6% -11.0%
all 74 -14.2% -22.4% 49% 5% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 5% -10.9%
10% -29.8% 4% -19.4%
15% ← realistic here -36.6% 1% -27.2%
20% -42.8% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,200.00 · official $10,200.00 (match) · 3500 history records