Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fd3…92f9 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$239 (-16%) realized −$239 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%20W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$223
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -10.0% -18.6% 49% 49% -23.5%
≤30d 41 -10.0% -18.6% 49% 49% -23.5%
≤90d 41 -10.0% -18.6% 49% 49% -23.5%
all 41 -10.0% -18.6% 49% 49% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 49% -23.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 46% -30.9%
15% -33.5% 46% -37.5%
20% -40.0% 46% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$36 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses20 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage2d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$48 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$49 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$13 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$53 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$23 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$25 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$33 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$25 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$27 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$28 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$31 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$34 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$30 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$10 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$39 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$97 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$26 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$17 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $47 −$45 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $95 +$19 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$32 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $51 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $31 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $35 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $27 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $13 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $29 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $30 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $41 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $13 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $20 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records