Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3F 0x3fd7…5191 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$80 (+32%) realized +$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$78
crypto 22% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +43.6% +29.9% 43% 43% -28.1%
≤30d 7 +43.6% +29.9% 43% 43% -28.1%
≤90d 7 +43.6% +29.9% 43% 43% -28.1%
all 7 +43.6% +29.9% 43% 43% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.9% 43% -28.1%
10% +17.5% 43% -35.0%
15% +6.1% 43% -41.2%
20% -4.3% 29% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$35 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $81 −$80 -99%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $56 +$27 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$31 +61%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 +$31 +596%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $81 1h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 26h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 57¢ $10 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 30h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records