Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3F 0x3fd7…1211 crypto 1919 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (155 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$915 (-5%) realized −$929 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate68%1120W / 535L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day154.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$485
7 days−$438
14 days+$656
30 days+$853
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,693
other 1% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (155 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -25.7% -32.7% 40% 40% -25.0%
≤30d 1655 +6.7% -3.4% 68% 63% -5.0%
≤90d 1655 +6.7% -3.4% 68% 63% -5.0%
all 1655 +6.7% -3.4% 68% 63% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover154.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 63% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 55% -14.1%
15% -21.1% 41% -22.4%
20% -28.8% 27% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$929
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses1120 / 535
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1655 / 1919
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day154.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1655 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.55 · official $184.73 (match) · 3500 history records