Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:07:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3F 0x3fd8…a3a5 other 58 markets active 2d ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$235 (+3%) realized +$119 · open +$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$4,793now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$165
14 days+$106
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$9
sports 14% +$148
crypto 6% +$68
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +37.9% +24.8% 42% 42% +0.4%
≤30d 32 +23.4% +11.6% 38% 38% -4.4%
≤90d 32 +23.4% +11.6% 38% 38% -4.4%
all 32 +23.4% +11.6% 38% 38% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.6% 38% -4.4%
10% +1.0% 38% -13.5%
15% -8.8% 38% -21.9%
20% -17.7% 34% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$43 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$4,793
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$116
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions26
Markets (closed)32 / 58
History coverage7d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $800 $976 +$176 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $850 $687 −$163 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $500 $647 +$147 (+29%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $400 $595 +$195 (+49%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $550 $370 −$180 (-33%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $250 $288 +$38 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $400 $283 −$117 (-29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $250 $276 +$26 (+11%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $59 $56 −$4 (-6%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $43 $48 +$4 (+10%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $41 $40 −$2 (-4%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+6%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $27 $24 −$4 (-13%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $119 +$81 +67%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $99 −$9 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $127 +$73 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $27 +$73 +276%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $88 +$112 +126%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $108 +$40 +37%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $59 −$58 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $78 −$28 -36%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $47 +$153 +325%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$47 +90%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$134 +262%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$73 +287%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 +$86 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$44 -87%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $51 −$2 -5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$40 +78%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$23 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 44h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 44h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 44h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 44h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 44h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $57 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 46¢ $91 46h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $127 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,793.28 · official $4,793.81 (match) · 102 history records