Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:17:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fda…8168 crypto 502 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$360 (-3%) realized −$360 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%260W / 230L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$211
14 days−$211
30 days−$317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$335
sports 8% −$120
other 2% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -5.6% -14.6% 55% 42% -28.3%
≤30d 80 -25.4% -32.5% 45% 36% -25.3%
≤90d 156 -17.1% -25.0% 52% 42% -28.7%
all 490 -10.3% -18.9% 53% 43% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 43% -12.8%
10% -26.6% 33% -21.2%
15% -33.7% 26% -28.8%
20% -40.2% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$360
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses260 / 230
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)490 / 502
History coverage150d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 490 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $130 −$124 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $36 −$35 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$10 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $42 +$57 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $106 +$55 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$55 +108%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $28 +$23 +83%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $11 +$17 +151%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $17 $0 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $46 −$18 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$2 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +19%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +62%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Zverev Jun 19 $73 −$42 -58%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $78 −$78 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 19 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 -11%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $66 +$11 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $96 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $50 +$7 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $111 +$56 +50%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Maddison Inglis Jun 01 $1 $0 -7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $11 +$2 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $64 +$38 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $130 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $36 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $51 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $41 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $106 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $107 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $51 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $28 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 19¢ $17 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $17 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $19 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $28 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $3 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $15 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1213 history records