Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:08:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fdb…7da4 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$263 (-24%) realized −$263 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$142
other 22% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -3.4% -12.6% 38% 38% -14.2%
≤30d 13 -3.4% -12.6% 38% 38% -14.2%
≤90d 13 -3.4% -12.6% 38% 38% -14.2%
all 13 -3.4% -12.6% 38% 38% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 38% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 38% -22.4%
15% -28.6% 38% -29.9%
20% -35.6% 23% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -71% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$38 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$263
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $201 −$22 -11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $51 +$50 +97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 +$78 +153%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 +$37 +73%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $51 +$19 +37%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $51 −$6 -11%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -86%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $31 −$20 -65%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $283 −$160 -56%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $122 −$68 -56%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 −$16 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 81¢ $88 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 37¢ $61 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $81 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 81¢ $91 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 90¢ $100 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 90¢ $100 1h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 88¢ $44 1h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 88¢ $44 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 25¢ $41 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 61¢ $49 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $147 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 13¢ $70 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 15¢ $34 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 29¢ $62 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 29¢ $62 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 20¢ $54 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 5h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records