Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fdb…0060 crypto 29 markets active 15h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$210 (-3%) realized −$210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 23L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$70
14 days−$71
30 days−$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$5
crypto 36% +$2
sports 3% −$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -65.8% -69.0% 11% 6% -12.2%
≤30d 29 -44.3% -49.6% 21% 3% -12.3%
≤90d 29 -44.3% -49.6% 21% 3% -12.3%
all 29 -44.3% -49.6% 21% 3% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.6% 3% -12.3%
10% -54.4% 3% -20.7%
15% -58.8% 3% -28.3%
20% -62.9% 3% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage20d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $4 +$9 +216%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $69 −$68 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,317 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $500 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $502 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $420 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $483 −$1 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $560 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $509 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $244 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10AM ET Jun 05 $550 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $4 14h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 16h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 16h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $9 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 39h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $69 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $488 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $489 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $482 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $483 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $400 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $480 8d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $481 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $502 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $481 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $482 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $419 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $420 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $345 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $345 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records