Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fdd…07f5 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$2
other 22% $0
politics 8% $0
sports 8% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.2% -8.5% 44% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 41% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 41% 0% -8.8%
all 31 -3.2% -12.4% 42% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -9.2%
10% -20.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -28.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage476d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $29 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $29 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $27 +$1 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $26 +$1 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $2 $0 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 31 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $29 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $3 $0 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -6%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 05 $1 $0 -20%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 07 $13 $0 -1%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 23 $13 $0 -1%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 22 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Le-Moyne vs. Central Connecticut Mar 04 $14 −$2 -11%
Will Trump say 'Russia' 3+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $29 3h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $29 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $28 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $27 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $27 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 23h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $22 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $32 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $28 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 77¢ $14 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 77¢ $13 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $27 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $27 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $9 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $19 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $26 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records