Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:31:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fe0…3ca4 world 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$2
other 20% $0
crypto 7% −$1
weather 2% $0
sports 1% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.2% -5.7% 67% 33% -9.2%
≤30d 14 +12.0% +1.3% 36% 14% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +12.0% +1.3% 36% 14% -9.2%
all 33 +4.0% -5.9% 48% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 6% -9.5%
10% -14.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -23.1% 3% -26.1%
20% -30.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage465d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $65 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $65 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $91 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 16 $9 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 23 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? May 22 $9 −$1 -16%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $9 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 18 $3 −$1 -32%
Canada wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on March 13? Mar 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 12 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $46 1m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $46 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 25h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $18 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $24 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $42 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $42 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $9 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $15 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $18 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $9 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $21 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $10 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $11 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.62 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records