Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3F 0x3fe4…c29e politics 123 markets active 8h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,988 (-2%) realized −$3,818 · open +$1,830
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate73%87W / 32L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,028per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18,129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5,149
14 days−$5,149
30 days−$5,149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 45% +$2,887
crypto 28% −$5,073
tech 14% +$1,658
politics 12% −$2,317
world 1% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -6.4% -15.3% 86% 14% -21.1%
≤30d 8 -5.7% -14.7% 75% 12% -21.1%
≤90d 48 -23.2% -30.5% 54% 27% -15.9%
all 119 +4.5% -5.4% 73% 54% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 54% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 39% -21.7%
15% -22.7% 24% -29.2%
20% -30.3% 12% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$440 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$18,129
Realized−$3,818
Unrealized+$1,830
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses87 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)119 / 123
History coverage102d
Avg bet$1,028
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 72¢ $11,508 $13,246 +$1,738 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 66¢ $2,635 $2,662 +$27 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 81¢ $2,128 $2,189 +$61 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 40¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $8,347 −$8,094 -97%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( Jun 12 $833 +$49 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $10,028 +$719 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $6,340 +$659 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5,783 +$1,033 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $563 +$29 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 10 $8,331 +$455 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? Jun 06 $1 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 14 $8,946 +$615 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 08 $8,077 +$541 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 01 $25,916 +$1,121 +4%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Mar 31 $839 +$8 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Mar 24 $1,551 +$41 +3%
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Hundred" 25+ times during Memphis Roundt Mar 23 $306 −$305 -100%
Will Trump say "Egg" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $114 +$18 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 22 $860 +$307 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 22 $100 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 22 $150 +$73 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 22 $88 +$27 +31%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 8+ times during Co Mar 22 $174 −$78 -45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 17? Mar 22 $40 +$16 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during College Football Roundtable? Mar 22 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during Kentucky visit? Mar 22 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during Miami address? Mar 22 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 7+ times during Kentucky visit? Mar 22 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Kentucky visit? Mar 22 $854 −$854 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 27+ times during K Mar 22 $1,163 −$1,163 -100%
Will Trump say "Chicken" or "KFC" during Kentucky visit? Mar 22 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 22 $400 −$285 -71%
Will Trump say "Tiger" during College Football Roundtable? Mar 22 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Trump say "Sucker" or "Loser" during Kentucky visit? Mar 22 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" or "Golfing" during College Football Mar 22 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 22 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 22 $60 −$27 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 22 $60 −$23 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 22 $373 −$206 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 22 $450 +$471 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 22 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 22 $180 −$65 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 21 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 21 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 21 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 20 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 19 $40 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 19 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Trump say "Football" during Ohio visit? Mar 12 $45 +$10 +22%
Will Trump say "Ozempic" during Ohio visit? Mar 12 $270 −$204 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $28 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $3 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $33 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $32 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $3 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $3 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $117 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $20 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $20 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $26 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $204 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $295 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $297 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $216 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $414 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $376 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $351 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $27 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $27 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $27 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $27 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $27 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $92 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $27 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $314 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $102 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $153 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $204 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $220 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,128.65 · official $18,128.92 (match) · 1568 history records