Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:10:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fe8…0de3 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (410 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13,114 (+93%) realized +$13,114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$1,011per market
Trades / day410.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$13,114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (410 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+71.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +89.9% +71.8% 71% 71% +74.3%
≤30d 14 +89.9% +71.8% 71% 71% +74.3%
≤90d 14 +89.9% +71.8% 71% 71% +74.3%
all 14 +89.9% +71.8% 71% 71% +74.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover410.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +71.8% 71% +74.3%
10% +55.4% 71% +57.7%
15% ← realistic here +40.4% 71% +42.4%
20% +26.6% 71% +28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +93% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +90% · $-wt +93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +197% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
27.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,620 vs −$771 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.25 per $1 lost it wins $5.25
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13,114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,011
Trades / day410.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $403 −$403 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $2,668 +$2,585 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $702 +$629 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$27 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $316 −$316 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $1,201 −$1,201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $1,163 −$1,163 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $543 +$2,577 +474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $1,551 +$3,174 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $1,013 +$1,733 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $2,199 +$2,369 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $86 +$97 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $1,481 +$1,261 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $794 +$1,746 +220%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $27 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $18 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 424 history records