Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3F 0x3feb…3acc sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$103 (+39%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 90d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$93
sports 28% +$11
weather 4% +$2
politics 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 +14.4% +3.5% 67% 67% +32.8%
all 6 +14.4% +3.5% 67% 67% +32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 67% +32.8%
10% -6.4% 67% +20.1%
15% -15.4% 67% +8.5%
20% -23.7% 33% -2.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$5 · ×5.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.06 per $1 lost it wins $11.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage90d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $100 +$57 +57%
Will Trump say "Kanye" or "Taylor Swift" in March? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $25 +$11 +44%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $75 +$36 +48%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 29? Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 29? Mar 30 $5 +$7 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.64 · official $49.24 · 16 history records