Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:13:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3fef…f961 crypto 368 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$539 (+17%) realized +$539 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%201W / 167L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$229
14 days+$67
30 days+$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$508
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +37.2% +24.1% 69% 69% +21.4%
≤30d 51 +29.8% +17.4% 69% 69% +9.5%
≤90d 301 +3.3% -6.5% 51% 51% +5.2%
all 368 +3.8% -6.0% 55% 53% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 53% +5.0%
10% -15.0% 51% -5.0%
15% -23.2% 47% -14.2%
20% -30.8% 44% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$539
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses201 / 167
Open positions0
Markets (closed)368 / 368
History coverage105d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 368 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $59 +$41 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $54 +$46 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $54 +$46 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$61 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$58 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$56 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $57 +$43 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 08 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $55 +$45 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 06 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 05 $53 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 05 $52 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 04 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 03 $56 +$44 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 02 $52 +$48 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 31 $60 +$40 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 31 $26 +$24 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 30 $28 +$22 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 28 $29 +$21 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 28 $24 +$26 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 28 $29 +$21 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 26 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 26 $26 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 26 $26 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 26 $26 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 25 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 25 $27 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 25 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 25 $30 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 24 $36 +$14 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $39 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $56 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $42 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $58 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $57 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $53 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $53 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $50 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $55 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $54 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 760 history records