Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3ff6…d170 crypto 1045 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (514 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,455 (+16%) realized +$3,455 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate83%864W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day514.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$41
other 14% −$138
sports 1% +$32
world 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (514 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1045 +0.4% -9.2% 83% 42% -9.8%
≤30d 1045 +0.4% -9.2% 83% 42% -9.8%
≤90d 1045 +0.4% -9.2% 83% 42% -9.8%
all 1045 +0.4% -9.2% 83% 42% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover514.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 42% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 1% -18.5%
15% -25.8% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,455
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses864 / 181
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1045 / 1045
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day514.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1045 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $636 −$11 -2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $456 −$9 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$16 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$17 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$12 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$17 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$4 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $558 +$22 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$14 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$2 +5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$6 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$16 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$12 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $153 52m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 92¢ $184 52m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $161 53m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $188 53m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 48¢ $94 58m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 24¢ $47 58m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 47¢ $95 58m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 58m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $149 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $155 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $35 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 41¢ $81 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $83 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 91¢ $182 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $149 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $141 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $180 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records