Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3ff8…7648
crypto · 17 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +3.7% -6.2% 59% 59% -13.9%
≤30d 17 +3.7% -6.2% 59% 59% -13.9%
≤90d 17 +3.7% -6.2% 59% 59% -13.9%
all 17 +3.7% -6.2% 59% 59% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 59% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 47% -22.2%
15% -23.4% 41% -29.7%
20% -30.9% 29% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records