Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:37:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3ff8…5fd6 sports 67 markets active 2d ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,633 (+13%) realized +$3,652 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%23W / 34L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$422per market
Trades / day32.8pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$418
7 days+$1,691
14 days+$2,762
30 days+$3,574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$3,248
world 37% +$6,590
other 24% +$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +45.8% +31.9% 41% 33% +0.5%
≤30d 57 +19.3% +7.9% 40% 37% +2.1%
≤90d 57 +19.3% +7.9% 40% 37% +2.1%
all 57 +19.3% +7.9% 40% 37% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.9% 37% +2.1%
10% ← realistic here -2.4% 35% -7.7%
15% -11.8% 28% -16.6%
20% -20.5% 21% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$660) neutral
Persistence
early -26% → late +63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$640 vs −$328 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized+$3,652
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses23 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions9
Markets (closed)57 / 67
History coverage21d
Avg bet$422
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $102 $113 +$11 (+11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $47 +$13 (+38%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-18%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $42 $33 −$9 (-21%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $34 $17 −$17 (-50%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-28%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $650 +$110 +17%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,340 +$60 +4%
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 17 $445 −$128 -29%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $230 +$59 +26%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 17 $1,061 +$316 +30%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $245 −$245 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $528 −$528 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $545 −$545 -100%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,380 −$72 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $350 +$1,995 +570%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $94 −$55 -59%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $475 +$2,022 +426%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $720 +$245 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $1,285 +$1,365 +106%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $125 +$1,515 +1212%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $840 −$151 -18%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 12 $305 +$194 +64%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,997 −$1,997 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 12 $126 −$126 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 12 $315 −$315 -100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $722 −$722 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $26 +$2 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 12 $312 −$157 -50%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $776 +$794 +102%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $57 +$277 +485%
Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Co Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Cobolli Jun 03 $372 −$372 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $360 −$360 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $283 −$283 -100%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $51 −$13 -25%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $12 +$5 +43%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 03 $265 −$265 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1,146 +$354 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1,060 +$395 +37%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $131 −$131 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $474 −$248 -52%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $106 −$106 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $350 +$161 +46%
Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 01 $393 +$307 +78%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5) Jun 01 $577 +$422 +73%
Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 01 $450 +$549 +122%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $390 −$379 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $380 −$283 -74%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? Jun 01 $211 +$87 +41%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $222 −$216 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $860 −$846 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $760 42h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $519 42h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $211 42h
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $317 42h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $289 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $560 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $261 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $23 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $32 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $31 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $154 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $528 2d
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $13 2d
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $13 2d
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 2d
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $13 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $412 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.30 · official $323.30 (match) · 753 history records