Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3ffb…df76 sports 697 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 204d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,424 (+6%) realized +$23,361 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%357W / 338L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$520per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$1,164est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,463now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 204d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$8,103
world 7% −$373
other 5% +$1,667
finance 4% −$590
politics 2% −$605
tech 1% +$132
crypto 1% +$613
economics 0% +$1,569
culture 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -21.0% -28.5% 38% 38% -65.4%
≤30d 119 +15.3% +4.3% 49% 47% -4.3%
≤90d 243 +2.3% -7.5% 47% 44% -8.0%
all 695 +3.8% -6.1% 51% 45% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 45% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 43% -15.8%
15% -23.3% 42% -24.0%
20% -30.8% 39% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$329 vs −$321 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$1,463
Realized+$23,361
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses357 / 338
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,164
Open positions2
Markets (closed)695 / 697
History coverage204d ⚠
Avg bet$520
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 695 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $1,000 $1,048 +$48 (+5%)
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes 26¢ 27¢ $400 $415 +$15 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 28 $100 −$16 -16%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort Jun 28 $10 +$5 +47%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $14 +$11 +76%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 27 $50 +$30 +61%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5) Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G Jun 27 $10 +$10 +108%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America Jun 27 $10 +$9 +85%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $6 +$14 +257%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $100 +$104 +104%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $100 +$85 +85%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group Jun 23 $100 +$72 +72%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $102 −$99 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 22 $203 −$203 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 22 $504 −$504 -100%
Will FUT Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 22 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $2,125 +$435 +20%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $203 +$179 +88%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $100 +$257 +257%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 19 $3 $0 -4%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $200 +$103 +52%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $101 −$5 -5%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $2,436 −$1,549 -64%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 16 $1,006 −$1,006 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $3,711 −$3,711 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $2,016 −$191 -9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $203 +$262 +129%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $203 +$182 +90%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,045 +$5,755 +282%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $172 +$103 +60%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $141 +$111 +79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$100 +1011%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $200 +$192 +96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$44 +44%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL Riddle 33¢ $84 1h
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 39¢ $7 12h
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 39¢ $14 12h
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 39¢ $13 12h
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 39¢ $3 16h
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 39¢ $23 17h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 68¢ $10 19h
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 39¢ $39 19h
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick W BUY Fake do Biru 45¢ $9 21h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Misa Esports 62¢ $50 35h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Isurus 55¢ $50 41h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Game Hunters 54¢ $4 41h
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G BUY Division One 48¢ $10 42h
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $409 42h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 51¢ $101 42h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Game Hunters 58¢ $10 43h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY NRG Academy 54¢ $10 43h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 28¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 63¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 49¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 50¢ $51 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 49¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY ECHO 58¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 54¢ $88 5d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 54¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 54¢ $11 5d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Execration 40¢ $56 5d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Execration 40¢ $4 5d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Execration 40¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,462.64 · official $1,462.64 (match) · 3500 history records