Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:34:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3ffe…26f4 finance 285 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,822 (+6%) realized +$5,822 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate54%154W / 130L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$437
7 days+$452
14 days+$746
30 days+$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$3,453
finance 18% +$1,669
other 17% +$304
politics 1% −$177
sports 1% +$25
tech 0% −$4
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +51.3% +36.9% 100% 67% +3.5%
≤30d 36 +4.2% -5.7% 56% 42% -8.6%
≤90d 261 +5.4% -4.6% 54% 33% -5.0%
all 284 +5.4% -4.6% 54% 33% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 33% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 22% -13.6%
15% -22.1% 15% -22.0%
20% -29.7% 10% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$36 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,822
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses154 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)284 / 285
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$331
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 284 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 22 $2,787 +$286 +10%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $259 +$138 +53%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 21 $13 +$5 +40%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 21 $7 +$7 +96%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +5%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $12 +$12 +103%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $244 +$35 +14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $290 +$70 +24%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 12 $232 −$55 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $680 −$30 -4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 11 $3,268 +$67 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $198 −$28 -14%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 10 $717 +$144 +20%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $25 +$4 +15%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $922 +$118 +13%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 08 $90 +$18 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 08 $280 +$122 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $2,483 −$121 -5%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? Jun 08 $183 −$29 -16%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 02 $56 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $130 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $1,435 +$31 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $2,090 +$188 +9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30? May 26 $1,327 −$108 -8%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? May 26 $137 −$84 -61%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of May 18 2026? May 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 26 $130 −$130 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? May 26 $1,193 −$659 -55%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $142 −$1 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $15 +$17 +114%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? May 25 $11 −$10 -89%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $1,098 +$177 +16%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $81 +$9 +12%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? May 24 $99 +$118 +119%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? May 21 $293 −$16 -5%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 20 $418 −$18 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 20 $400 +$66 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 19 $116 −$9 -8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 19 $196 −$8 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 14? May 14 $4 +$1 +20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 14? May 14 $4 $0 +11%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 12 $428 +$82 +19%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 10 $200 +$6 +3%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? May 10 $25 −$19 -77%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 10 $34 −$1 -3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $79 $0 +1%
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? May 06 $427 +$10 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL No 27¢ $7 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL No 32¢ $181 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $20 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL No 41¢ $52 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL No 42¢ $59 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $378 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 37¢ $41 2h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $251 2h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 40¢ $296 4h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 37¢ $18 5h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 91¢ $18 5h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 73¢ $14 5h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 64¢ $13 6h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 36¢ $7 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $21 4d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $24 4d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 4d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No $24 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $12 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY $62 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $105 7d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 81¢ $360 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $33 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $174 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $54 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $0 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $0 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $0 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records