Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:06:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3F 0x3fff…5495 sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$377 (+17%) realized +$340 · open +$37
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%32W / 24L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$282
14 days+$473
30 days+$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$445
other 21% −$8
economics 5% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +20.4% +8.9% 59% 59% +30.9%
≤30d 56 +18.6% +7.3% 57% 55% +4.9%
≤90d 56 +18.6% +7.3% 57% 55% +4.9%
all 56 +18.6% +7.3% 57% 55% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 55% +4.9%
10% -3.0% 55% -5.2%
15% -12.4% 48% -14.3%
20% -20.9% 45% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized+$340
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses32 / 24
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions8
Markets (closed)56 / 64
History coverage30d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $200 $221 +$21 (+11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $49 +$19 (+63%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $29 $42 +$13 (+46%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $22 +$7 (+47%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $9 −$6 (-42%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $4 −$9 (-66%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Dimitrov vs Jacquet Jun 18 $19 +$36 +187%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Marozsan vs Fritz Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $51 +$35 +69%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$55 +108%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $8 +$13 +155%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$38 +187%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $21 +$11 +53%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $41 −$6 -16%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $41 +$18 +44%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $19 −$17 -92%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $31 +$16 +52%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $82 +$98 +120%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $33 +$8 +23%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $34 +$27 +82%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $20 +$23 +111%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5) Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $51 +$34 +67%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $17 −$8 -48%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $29 −$1 -3%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $42 +$47 +112%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$17 +163%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $27 +$1 +4%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $10 +$25 +248%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $10 +$11 +104%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $13 +$8 +59%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $31 +$24 +78%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $36 −$2 -4%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $31 +$22 +72%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $101 +$24 +24%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $25 −$24 -95%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $14 +$10 +72%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $36 +$26 +72%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $35 +$31 +89%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 04 $12 +$8 +64%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $59 −$2 -4%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $31 −$16 -52%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $41 +$18 +44%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter Jun 04 $51 +$16 +32%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $51 +$55 +108%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $51 −$4 -8%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $31 +$22 +72%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 May 31 $49 −$49 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 May 30 $51 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $31 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 10¢ $5 6h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Fabian Marozsan $10 8h
Set 1 Winner: Dimitrov vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 34¢ $19 8h
Set 1 Winner: Marozsan vs Fritz BUY Marozsan 33¢ $12 9h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 25h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Zizou Bergs 43¢ $21 31h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 16¢ $8 32h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 65¢ $21 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 34¢ $10 4d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 59¢ $34 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 100¢ $58 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 68¢ $41 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $180 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 68¢ $41 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 15¢ $10 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins $1 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 16¢ $8 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 65¢ $9 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 65¢ $22 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Ben Shelton 89¢ $41 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 71¢ $33 5d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 47¢ $10 6d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 46¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.08 · official $379.08 (match) · 171 history records