Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4000…b84a crypto 658 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$382 (-5%) realized −$385 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate49%321W / 336L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day88.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$16
14 days−$571
30 days−$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$322
sports 0% −$30
other 0% −$30
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 294 -9.9% -18.4% 49% 21% -10.1%
≤30d 657 -9.7% -18.3% 49% 26% -14.4%
≤90d 657 -9.7% -18.3% 49% 26% -14.4%
all 657 -9.7% -18.3% 49% 26% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 26% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 16% -22.6%
15% -33.3% 10% -30.1%
20% -39.8% 6% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$385
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses321 / 336
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)657 / 658
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day88.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 657 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 26¢ 42¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$9 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $46 +$14 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $12 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $14 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $13 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $13 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $15 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $14 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.49 · official $10.69 · 3500 history records