Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
40 0x4003…f1da sports 81 markets active 4h ago coverage 565d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,429 (+4%) realized +$1,337 · open +$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%38W / 42L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$398per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$146
7 days−$377
14 days−$463
30 days−$463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$100
sports 46% +$2,164
politics 8% −$277
world 1% −$319
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -9.6% -18.2% 22% 22% -21.1%
≤30d 53 +1.8% -7.9% 38% 38% -14.6%
≤90d 62 -2.3% -11.6% 40% 39% -14.1%
all 80 -1.6% -11.0% 48% 42% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 42% -5.7%
10% -19.5% 35% -14.7%
15% -27.3% 24% -22.9%
20% -34.4% 14% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$99 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

565d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$1,337
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses38 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage565d
Avg bet$398
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 48¢ $34 $125 +$92 (+273%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $40 −$38 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $59 −$57 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $68 −$66 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $54 +$186 +344%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $36 +$141 +388%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $42 −$40 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $48 −$46 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $24 +$186 +784%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $47 −$46 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $71 −$69 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $81 −$79 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $60 +$165 +276%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $69 −$67 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $78 −$77 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $206 −$206 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $155 +$53 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,315 +$189 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $462 +$141 +31%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $319 −$319 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $132 +$329 +249%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $355 +$97 +27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $591 −$591 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$26 +26%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $85 −$84 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $459 +$181 +40%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $106 −$96 -91%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 +$49 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $114 −$46 -40%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $425 +$137 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $271 +$154 +57%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $94 +$259 +276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $251 −$248 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $271 +$74 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $278 −$6 -2%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $258 −$254 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $121 +$137 +114%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $49 +$127 +262%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $124 −$123 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $34 3h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $40 4h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $45 19h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 21h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $59 24h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 31h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $67 31h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $78 45h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $240 45h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $54 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $177 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $42 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $48 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $210 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $27 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $36 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $47 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $54 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $69 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $81 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $225 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $60 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $69 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.13 · official $119.97 · 234 history records