Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4004…fd0c
sports · 73 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$31 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$30 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses43 / 29
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage16d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 72 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$39
14 days−$31
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +47%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $22 −$13 -56%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $12 −$1 -8%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $3 +$2 +83%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $8 +$3 +40%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $12 +$11 +95%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $12 +$6 +51%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $10 +$8 +76%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Jun Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 03 $2 +$2 +109%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -37%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +8%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 03 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $6 −$3 -42%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $2 +$8 +325%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin above 69,000 on June 2, 9AM ET? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% −$28
crypto 23% −$3
weather 10% −$2
politics 7% $0
world 2% −$1
other 2% +$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 6h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $4 8h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 8h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 64¢ $5 8h
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL No 93¢ $7 8h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $3 14h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 85¢ $5 15h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $3 16h
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Santiago Luna 47¢ $2 6d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Santiago Luna 46¢ $10 6d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main SELL Bryce Mitchell 54¢ $10 6d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Bryce Mitchell 55¢ $5 6d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Bryce Mitchell 54¢ $5 6d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL FlyQuest 51¢ $11 6d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY FlyQuest 51¢ $2 6d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY FlyQuest 51¢ $10 6d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 36¢ $8 6d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 38¢ $2 6d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 38¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -29.5% -36.2% 38% 25% -46.4%
≤30d 72 -5.2% -14.2% 60% 32% -17.9%
≤90d 72 -5.2% -14.2% 60% 32% -17.9%
all 72 -5.2% -14.2% 60% 32% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 32% -17.9%
10% -22.4% 26% -25.7%
15% -29.9% 24% -32.9%
20% -36.8% 18% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.00 (match) · 231 history records