Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4006…b07f other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$24
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$13
politics 26% −$14
sports 22% −$14
crypto 8% −$1
economics 4% −$3
world 4% −$1
culture 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 61 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 112 -0.5% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 126 -0.4% -9.9% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 109
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage100d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $107 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 17 $92 −$1 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $159 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $187 −$2 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $275 −$2 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 14 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $51 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $108 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $480 −$2 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $127 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $135 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $106 −$2 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $56 −$1 -1%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $275 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $99 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $37 −$1 -4%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 03 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $54 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $106 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $101 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $122 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $161 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $58 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $119 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $377 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $172 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $61 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $46 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $53 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 40m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $53 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 8h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $48 9h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $48 13h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $6 13h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $6 20h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $54 21h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 29h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 29h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $57 29h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $57 35h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $59 36h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $59 40h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 41h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $62 2d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $62 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $55 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $26 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $41 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $42 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $49 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 3d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $49 3d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $49 3d
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 97¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.15 · official $53.15 (match) · 471 history records