Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:09:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4009…6a54 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% $0
world 44% +$12
sports 3% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 11 +0.6% -9.0% 55% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 18 -4.6% -13.7% 50% 6% -8.2%
all 39 -1.6% -10.9% 49% 3% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 3% -8.4%
10% -19.5% 0% -17.2%
15% -27.2% 0% -25.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.61 per $1 lost it wins $7.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage472d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $123 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $36 $0 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $41 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $84 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $53 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $71 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $41 +$8 +19%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Grigor Dimitrov win Wimbledon 2025? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 06 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $101K on May 27? May 25 $3 $0 +9%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 24 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 06 $15 $0 +2%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $15 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $15 33m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $17 33m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 33m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $41 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $32 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $19 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $50 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $9 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $41 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $50 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $26 37h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $16 37h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $41 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $19 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $29 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $23 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $23 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $54 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $54 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records