Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:47:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x400d…d97e other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$21 (-10%) realized −$16 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$10
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$29
world 11% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.7% -5.3% 33% 33% -9.8%
≤30d 10 -6.1% -15.0% 30% 30% -18.7%
≤90d 12 -10.7% -19.2% 25% 25% -22.6%
all 12 -10.7% -19.2% 25% 25% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 25% -22.6%
10% -26.9% 25% -30.0%
15% -34.0% 17% -36.8%
20% -40.5% 8% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage36d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 18 $12 −$4 -33%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $7 $0 -6%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 18 $13 −$3 -21%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +45%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$4 +27%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $13 −$1 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $13 −$7 -52%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 19 $16 −$2 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $32 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 2h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 40¢ $8 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $16 4d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $6 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $12 4d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $17 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 12d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 58¢ $12 12d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 20d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $10 20d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 20d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $13 28d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 28d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 33d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 34d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 34d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 34d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 34d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 34d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 34d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 34d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $16 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.46 · official $65.46 (match) · 59 history records