Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
40 0x400d…e8cd other 51 markets active 2d ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$371per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 72% −$14
politics 17% −$8
other 9% +$27
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% −$18
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +18.2% +6.9% 25% 25% -4.8%
≤30d 14 +5.1% -4.9% 14% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 39 +5.1% -4.9% 23% 15% -8.4%
all 49 +1.9% -7.8% 24% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 12% -9.6%
10% -16.6% 12% -18.2%
15% -24.7% 12% -26.1%
20% -32.1% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage584d
Avg bet$371
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $17 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $163 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $84 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $12 +$7 +65%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $71 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $77 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $76 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $79 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $71 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $46 +$2 +5%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $4 +$7 +172%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $11 +$8 +76%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $16 +$7 +46%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 06 $11 +$7 +65%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Utah Valley Wolverines Mar 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? Mar 05 $87 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $86 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $13,536 −$14 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $11 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $22 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $3,005 −$8 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $10 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 9d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 9d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 10d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 10d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $47 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 24d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 27d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 27d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 28d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 28d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 28d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 28d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $18 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.78 · official $71.78 (match) · 239 history records