Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

40 0x400d…28af crypto 23 markets active 3h ago coverage 12d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$10,159 (+18%) realized +$10,159 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate52%12W / 11L

Whale WR67%big bets

Drawdown83%max

Avg bet$2,404per market

Trades / day7.4pace

Fees−$27est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$9,573now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-7.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+2.8%	-7.0%	56%	56%	+11.9%
≤30d	23	+2.1%	-7.6%	52%	52%	+6.2%
≤90d	23	+2.1%	-7.6%	52%	52%	+6.2%
all	23	+2.1%	-7.6%	52%	52%	+6.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.4 tr/day

realistic slip~12%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-7.6%	52%	+6.2%
10% ← realistic here	-16.5%	52%	-3.9%
15%	-24.6%	52%	-13.2%
20%	-32.0%	52%	-21.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 67% (≥$2,939) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +15% → late -9% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$2,699 vs −$2,079 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.42 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$9,573

Realized+$10,159

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses12 / 11

Whale WR (big bets)67%

Est. fees paid−$27

Open positions0

Markets (closed)23 / 23

History coverage12d

Avg bet$2,404

Trades / day7.4

Drawdown83%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 23 Trades

no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Jun 26	$948	+$753	+79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Jun 26	$4,844	+$3,189	+66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 26	$689	−$666	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Jun 26	$980	−$948	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 26	$1,518	+$1,256	+83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 26	$1,014	−$981	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Jun 26	$882	−$852	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Jun 26	$1,755	+$1,452	+83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Jun 26	$1,770	−$1,717	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Jun 26	$981	+$825	+84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 26	$1,371	−$1,325	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Jun 26	$2,939	+$2,593	+88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Jun 26	$1,957	−$1,892	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Jun 26	$1,225	+$1,011	+82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Jun 26	$980	−$949	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 26	$1,960	+$1,750	+89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 26	$1,502	+$1,330	+88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Jun 26	$1,958	+$1,999	+102%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$6,879	−$6,786	-99%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions	Jun 18	$1,962	−$1,935	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$4,892	−$4,820	-98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$7,353	+$4,744	+64%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$4,921	+$11,483	+233%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$281	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$668	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$1,998	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$1,888	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$138	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$819	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$689	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$36	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$286	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$384	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$274	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$615	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$268	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$131	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$538	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$178	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$320	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$482	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$535	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$347	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$772	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$223	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$216	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$262	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$282	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$984	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$787	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$2	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$570	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$800	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,572.83 · official $9,572.83 (match) · 95 history records