Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

40 0x400f…c138 crypto 15 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$254 (+67%) realized +$254 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip

Net edge+25%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate60%9W / 6L

Drawdown25%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day26.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)+47.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+62.8%	+47.3%	60%	53%	+47.4%
≤30d	15	+62.8%	+47.3%	60%	53%	+47.4%
≤90d	15	+62.8%	+47.3%	60%	53%	+47.4%
all	15	+62.8%	+47.3%	60%	53%	+47.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover26.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+47.3%	53%	+47.4%
10% ← realistic here	+33.2%	53%	+33.3%
15%	+20.3%	47%	+20.4%
20%	+8.5%	40%	+8.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +63% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +130% → late +4% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$41 vs −$22 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$254

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses9 / 6

Open positions0

Markets (closed)15 / 15

History coverage1d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day26.0

Drawdown25%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 15 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$23	+88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Jun 25	$26	−$8	-30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 25	$26	−$22	-85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$34	+132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Jun 25	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Jun 25	$10	+$5	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 25	$51	−$51	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$20	+79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Jun 25	$27	+$190	+714%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$2	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Jun 25	$27	−$21	-80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Jun 25	$25	+$9	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$58	+221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$30	+116%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$48	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	SELL Up	35¢	$18	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	SELL Down	4¢	$4	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$60	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	SELL Up	79¢	$15	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$26	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$26	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$26	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$5	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	SELL Up	95¢	$216	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$27	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	SELL Down	73¢	$27	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$26	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	SELL Up	3¢	$5	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$27	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$26	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	SELL Up	97¢	$56	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$26	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$25	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records