Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:16:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
40 0x400f…e712 sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 624d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$6,465 (+14%) realized +$6,465 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%29W / 31L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$759per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$7,273
crypto 3% +$126
other 3% −$458
politics 0% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -44.7% -50.0% 27% 27% -3.6%
≤30d 14 -33.4% -39.7% 36% 36% -4.0%
≤90d 18 -36.2% -42.2% 33% 33% -43.1%
all 60 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 48% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 48% +3.9%
10% -21.8% 48% -6.1%
15% -29.4% 37% -15.1%
20% -36.3% 35% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$1,105) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$807 vs −$538 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,465
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses29 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage624d
Avg bet$759
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $330 +$320 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $213 −$213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $168 −$149 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $265 +$221 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $123 +$143 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$25 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $38 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$14 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 14 $80 +$69 +87%
Pistons vs. Bucks May 14 $951 −$669 -70%
Clemson Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide May 14 $600 −$600 -100%
Nets vs. Bulls Dec 04 $700 −$586 -84%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Dec 04 $1,269 +$869 +68%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Kansas Jayhawks Dec 04 $1,771 −$926 -52%
Northern Illinois vs. UMass Dec 02 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Dec 02 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans Nov 13 $948 −$898 -95%
Magic vs. Knicks Nov 13 $2,000 +$2,813 +141%
Michigan Wolverines vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons Nov 13 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Hawks vs. Clippers Nov 11 $1,902 +$567 +30%
Eagles vs. Packers Nov 11 $3,100 +$3,008 +97%
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands for between 10 and 15 secon Nov 11 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands for 15 seconds or more on N Nov 11 $100 −$99 -99%
Spread: Chargers (-4.5) Nov 10 $848 +$752 +89%
Celtics vs. Magic Nov 10 $1,500 +$1,986 +132%
Spread: Colts (-6.5) Nov 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Rockets vs. Bucks Nov 10 $500 +$1,014 +203%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Nov 10 $1,000 −$756 -76%
Jaguars vs. Texans Nov 10 $260 +$409 +157%
Patriots vs. Buccaneers Nov 10 $706 +$706 +100%
Saints vs. Panthers Nov 10 $1,200 +$982 +82%
Falcons vs. Colts Nov 09 $3,186 +$2,254 +71%
Wizards vs. Celtics Nov 09 $292 −$292 -100%
Wake Forest vs. Virginia Nov 09 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights Nov 09 $475 +$783 +165%
Suns vs. Clippers Nov 09 $1,500 +$1,633 +109%
Air Force vs. San Jose State Nov 09 $1,479 +$627 +42%
Auburn vs. Vanderbilt Nov 09 $1,105 +$374 +34%
Vikings vs. Chargers Nov 09 $610 −$610 -100%
Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2025-10-23? Oct 23 $253 +$359 +142%
Swiss Indoors Basel: Reilly Opelka vs Botic van de Zandschulp Oct 23 $188 +$66 +35%
Padres vs. Cubs Oct 23 $228 −$228 -100%
Braves vs. Mets Jun 27 $626 +$577 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records