Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
40 0x4010…eacf sports 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$39 (+2%) realized +$35 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%39W / 29L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$43
14 days+$85
30 days+$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$247
other 25% −$115
crypto 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +19.2% +7.8% 53% 53% -11.2%
≤30d 68 +23.2% +11.4% 57% 54% -0.6%
≤90d 68 +23.2% +11.4% 57% 54% -0.6%
all 68 +23.2% +11.4% 57% 54% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 54% -0.6%
10% +0.8% 53% -10.1%
15% -9.0% 53% -18.8%
20% -17.9% 43% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses39 / 29
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage15d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Yes 27¢ 49¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists Jun 20 $4 +$22 +546%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $25 +$26 +101%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $66 +$7 +11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $73 −$72 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $19 −$18 -94%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $14 +$17 +116%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $29 +$15 +51%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $20 +$22 +110%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$15 +75%
Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $62 −$61 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $42 +$20 +46%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $37 −$23 -64%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner Jun 18 $28 +$17 +60%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$19 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $58 −$57 -99%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $21 +$50 +234%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $35 −$9 -25%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$16 +81%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 +$19 +37%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 −$23 -56%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $71 +$34 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $71 +$44 +62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$21 +203%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $56 −$29 -52%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $16 +$28 +170%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $42 +$25 +59%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $29 −$19 -66%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $35 +$16 +46%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $31 +$43 +141%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $40 +$24 +60%
Weston McKennie: 2+ shots Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$7 -43%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $19 +$1 +8%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $38 +$21 +54%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 +$28 +93%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$18 +69%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $15 +$11 +74%
China PR leading at halftime? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -98%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $16 −$16 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $14 +$10 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 206.5 Jun 09 $38 +$14 +36%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $25 +$12 +48%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 08 $20 +$10 +49%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists SELL Yes 93¢ $27 0m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 2m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 6m
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 35m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 70¢ $73 38m
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $66 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $42 14h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over $1 14h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $19 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $31 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $14 18h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $44 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $29 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score AND Will Morocco win on 2026 BUY 25¢ $18 20h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $43 21h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $20 23h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $35 23h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 24h
Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $9 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $62 42h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $62 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $42 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 19¢ $13 45h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $37 47h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner SELL Czechia 99¢ $45 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner BUY Czechia 61¢ $28 2d
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $20 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.03 · official $9.03 (match) · 129 history records