Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4010…2d15 other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84 (-10%) realized −$62 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate39%27W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% $0
crypto 26% −$19
politics 12% −$50
tech 7% +$10
culture 6% −$25
world 4% −$5
weather 2% +$1
sports 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +38.7% +25.5% 100% 100% +25.5%
≤30d 3 +80.8% +63.6% 100% 100% +46.2%
≤90d 15 -56.9% -61.0% 27% 20% -49.0%
all 69 -30.9% -37.5% 39% 26% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.5% 26% -17.5%
10% -43.5% 20% -25.4%
15% -48.9% 16% -32.6%
20% -53.9% 10% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses27 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)69 / 79
History coverage222d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 40¢ 25¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-37%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 46¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-32%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+63%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+24%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-35%)
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes 54¢ 16¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-82%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Yes 28¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $22 +$9 +39%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 22 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 +$9 +91%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will Netherlands win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Sk Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice H Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Femke Kok (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Spee Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Joep Wennemars (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Sk Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66? Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics Feb 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating Feb 17 $5 $0 -9%
Will USA win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Feb 17 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice H Feb 16 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Xandra Velzeboer (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 Feb 16 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 16 $40 +$18 +44%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Jutta Leerdam (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Feb 09 $4 +$2 +54%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 08 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in December? Jan 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $25 −$4 -14%
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by March 31, 2026? Jan 31 $26 +$16 +60%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $38 −$10 -26%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jan 29 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jan 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Jan 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Jan 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Jan 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $2 $0 +18%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $19 +$5 +26%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Jan 11 $20 +$35 +175%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Jan 08 $20 $0 +2%
Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by June 30, 2026? Jan 08 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025? Jan 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5? Jan 04 $2 −$1 -44%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 03 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jan 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jan 02 $5 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $31 1h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 23d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $19 29d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $1 32d
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $2 117d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 117d
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics SELL No 98¢ $22 117d
Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating SELL Yes 40¢ $5 118d
Will USA win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - SELL No 35¢ $7 118d
Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating BUY Yes 44¢ $5 118d
Will USA win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - BUY No 47¢ $5 118d
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice H SELL Yes 18¢ $2 118d
Will Netherlands win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Sk BUY Yes 62¢ $5 119d
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice H BUY Yes 22¢ $3 119d
Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice H BUY Yes 1¢ $5 119d
Will Xandra Velzeboer (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 SELL Yes 100¢ $8 119d
Will Femke Kok (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Spee BUY Yes 43¢ $3 119d
Will USA win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - BUY No 60¢ $5 119d
Will Netherlands win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Sk BUY Yes 19¢ $5 119d
Will Xandra Velzeboer (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 BUY Yes 65¢ $5 119d
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? SELL Yes 95¢ $57 119d
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 123d
Will Joep Wennemars (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: BUY Yes 70¢ $5 123d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly SELL No 93¢ $11 123d
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 125d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 125d
Will Jutta Leerdam (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: SELL Yes 100¢ $7 125d
Will Jutta Leerdam (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: BUY Yes 65¢ $4 126d
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 25¢ $3 127d
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 19¢ $3 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.10 · official $63.10 (match) · 384 history records