Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4013…ab35 crypto 1053 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$562 (-2%) realized −$562 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate55%583W / 470L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day47.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$53
14 days+$51
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$133
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 223 -3.9% -13.1% 62% 43% -6.2%
≤30d 547 -6.6% -15.5% 63% 31% -9.9%
≤90d 1053 -4.6% -13.7% 55% 17% -9.9%
all 1053 -4.6% -13.7% 55% 17% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 17% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 11% -18.6%
15% -29.5% 7% -26.4%
20% -36.4% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$562
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses583 / 470
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1053 / 1053
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day47.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1053 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$7 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$19 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$11 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$13 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$26 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$13 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $18 +$12 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$5 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $72 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records