Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4014…eb23 crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-4%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -26.6% -33.6% 45% 27% -19.1%
≤30d 11 -26.6% -33.6% 45% 27% -19.1%
≤90d 11 -26.6% -33.6% 45% 27% -19.1%
all 11 -26.6% -33.6% 45% 27% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.6% 27% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -39.9% 27% -26.9%
15% -45.7% 27% -33.9%
20% -51.1% 18% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $34 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$6 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records