Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4014…27bf other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$754 (+16%) realized −$159 · open +$913
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$3,173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$506
sports 15% +$333
world 2% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -27.2% -34.2% 33% 33% -16.8%
≤30d 18 -27.2% -34.2% 33% 33% -16.8%
≤90d 18 -27.2% -34.2% 33% 33% -16.8%
all 18 -27.2% -34.2% 33% 33% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 33% -16.8%
10% -40.5% 33% -24.7%
15% -46.2% 33% -32.0%
20% -51.5% 28% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$103 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$3,173
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$913
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage5d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $2,000 $2,924 +$924 (+46%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 48¢ 42¢ $60 $53 −$7 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$132 +44%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $153 +$264 +172%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $172 −$170 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $112 −$110 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$189 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $233 −$230 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$282 +276%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$68 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $61 42m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 1h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $51 14h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $102 14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $56 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $303 37h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $153 37h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 37h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $72 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $172 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $112 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $233 3d
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $102 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2,055 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,173.07 · official $3,177.06 (match) · 32 history records