Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x4015…c724 sports 164 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$124 (+9%) realized +$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%92W / 70L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$9
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$110
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +7.6% -2.7% 57% 57% -21.5%
≤30d 90 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 50% -17.5%
≤90d 143 +6.3% -3.8% 57% 57% -3.5%
all 162 +5.3% -4.7% 57% 57% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 57% -2.5%
10% -13.8% 57% -11.8%
15% -22.2% 57% -20.3%
20% -29.8% 55% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses92 / 70
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)162 / 164
History coverage116d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 61¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Set Handicap: Navarro (-1.5) vs Maneiro (+1.5) Navarro 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $6 +$4 +70%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $1 +$1 +70%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-9.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$5 +172%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +85%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-5.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $3 +$2 +73%
Reyer Venezia vs. Virtus Bologna Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 162.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 10 $5 +$4 +73%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $4 +$3 +76%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 160.5 Jun 09 $5 +$5 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $10 +$5 +48%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Jun 09 $5 +$4 +86%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty: O/U 175.5 Jun 07 $5 +$5 +89%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 164.5 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +65%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-1.5) Jun 06 $5 +$5 +90%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $10 +$9 +90%
Bicknell vs. Monday: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 03 $10 +$6 +60%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 03 $6 +$5 +79%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Jun 02 $5 +$3 +54%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5) Jun 02 $10 +$7 +73%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-1.5) Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $5 +$3 +52%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-4.5) May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 164.5 May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 170.5 May 30 $10 +$8 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Navarro (-1.5) vs Maneiro (+1.5) BUY Navarro 43¢ $1 3m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 61¢ $6 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 58¢ $1 24h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-9.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 52¢ $1 24h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 58¢ $6 2d
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 71¢ $5 2d
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) BUY New York Liberty 60¢ $1 4d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 54¢ $3 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 58¢ $3 5d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 59¢ $3 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 5d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) SELL Seattle Storm 100¢ $2 5d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) BUY Seattle Storm 53¢ $1 6d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 6d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 6d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi SELL Dalma Galfi 100¢ $5 8d
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-5.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 55¢ $3 8d
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 52¢ $5 8d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 54¢ $10 8d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 57¢ $3 8d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 9d
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 100¢ $7 9d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 57¢ $5 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 9d
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 56¢ $4 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 SELL Over 48¢ $5 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 10d
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 160.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 10d
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 10d
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty: O/U 175.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.83 · official $6.83 (match) · 341 history records